Read time: 3 mins
As Canada prepares to finalize a new trade and security agreement with the United States, our latest survey sheds light on Canadian views on economic leadership. While a majority express confidence in Prime Minister Carney’s ability to guide the economy, only a minority believe that repairing the U.S. trade relationship should be the country’s top priority.
Key Takeways
-
A majority of Canadians express confidence in Prime Minister Carney’s ability to lead the economy, though regional differences persist—especially in the Prairies.
-
Only 28% believe repairing the U.S. trade relationship should be the top economic priority, despite 60% saying the relationship is currently broken.
-
Two-thirds of Canadians expect a recession in 2025, with women more likely than men to hold this view.
Confidence in the Federal Liberal Government under Prime Minister Mark Carney to Provide Leadership on the Canadian Economy
Results show that while a majority of Canadians are confident in the Prime Minister’s leadership on matters related to the economy, residents aren’t necessarily thinking that the U.S. trade relationship should be the number one concern.
Indeed, only 28% feel that the most important current economic priority should be to repair our trade relationship with the United States, while six in ten believe the trade relationship between the two countries is broken. Older Canadians, aged 55 and over, are more likely to believe that the trade relationship is broken.
Confidence in Prime Minister Carney’s leadership is consistent across the country, with the exception of those living in the Prairie provinces being more likely to be not at all confident (25%), compared with those living in other provinces (19% or less).
“With a new trade agreement expected within the next two weeks, there is clearly a lot of pressure on Prime Minister Carney to negotiate a fair deal for Canada,” said Narrative Research COO Margaret Chapman. “However, Canadians aren’t necessarily thinking that the U.S. relationship is key to improving the country’s economic situation.”
Canadians are clearly concerned about the economy, however, with two thirds feeling that Canada will experience an economic recession in 2025. Men are less likely than women to believe that an economic recession is imminent. Results are otherwise consistent across demographic sub-groups
Likelihood of Canada Experiencing an Economic Recession in 2025
Results are from an online survey conducted in partnership between Narrative Research and the Logit Group. The survey was conducted between June 13 and 16, 2025 with 1,231 Canadians, 18 years of age or older from the Logit Group’s online Canadian Omnibus. Data were weighted based on the 2021 Census, by gender, age, and region to reflect actual population distribution.
For more information, please contact:
Margaret Chapman, COO & Partner, Narrative Research – 902.493.3834, mchapman@narrativeresearch.ca or Sam Pisani, Managing Partner, Logit Group – 416.629.4116, sam.pisani@logitgroup.com.
Narrative Research is a non-partisan, 100% Canadian-owned research company, certified as a Women Business Enterprise (WBE). Narrative Research provides clients with state-of-the-art research and strategic consulting services.
The Logit Group is a leading North American data collection and market research execution company headquartered in Toronto, conducting large-scale projects for a variety of well-known research agencies and brands. Logit employs industry-best technologies.
