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Tag: US election

Canadians’ Preference In The Us Presidential Election

  • Among Canadian adults, there is overwhelming support for Joe Biden in the upcoming American presidential election.
  • At least three-quarters of Canadians in each of the country’s five regions would prefer Biden.

October 23, 2020

CANADIANS’ PREFERENCE IN THE US PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION

There is massive support for Democrat Joe Biden among Canadian adults who express a preference in the upcoming US election. Eight-in-ten adults (79%) currently favour the former Democratic US Vice-President in the November 3rd US election, with incumbent Republican Donald Trump gaining the backing of only two-in-ten (20%). One percent of Canadians who offer an opinion on this question, support other options. Approximately 22 percent of Canadians say they would not vote, are undecided, or otherwise do not express an opinion.

This distribution of support is in marked contrast to national polls south of the border, which at the present time generally indicate a much closer race, although most surveys presently suggest Biden has greater support than Trump.

Regionally in Canada, Biden’s support is highest in Quebec (85%) and Atlantic Canada (84%), with slightly less backing in British Columbia (77%), the Prairie Provinces (76%), and Ontario (also 76%).

Other demographics indicate that Biden performs comparatively better among Baby Boomers (86%) and females (85%).

This survey was conducted online October 7-9, 2020, with 1,230 Canadians 18 years of age or older (972 decided adults), from the Logit Group’s Canadian Omnibus. Fielding every month, the Logit Group’s COVID-19 Omnibus surveys Canadians to ask their opinions and behaviours related to topical issues. Results were analyzed by Narrative Research. Data was weighted based on the 2016 Census, by gender, age, and region to reflect these population characteristics in each province. As a non-probability sample (i.e., a panel sample where residents have joined a panel to share their opinions), and in accordance with CRIC Public Opinion Research Standards, a margin of error is not applied.

Narrative Research (www.narrativeresearch.ca), is a leading public opinion and market research company headquartered in Canada. The company was recently certified as WBE (Women Business Enterprise). As a non-partisan, 100% Canadian-owned research company, Narrative Research is dedicated to providing clients with state-of-the-art research and strategic consulting services.

The Logit Group (https://logitgroup.com/) is a leading North American data collection and market research execution company headquartered in Toronto, conducting large-scale projects for a variety of well-known research agencies and brands. Logit employs industry-best technologies across an array of methodologies, and is independent, experienced and quality-oriented.

Follow us on Twitter at @EveryNarrative and @LogitGroup

For more information, please contact:

Margaret Brigley, CEO, Narrative Research – 902.493-3830, mbrigley@narrativeresearch.ca
OR
Margaret Chapman, COO, Narrative Research – 902.222.4048, mchapman@narrativeresearch.ca
OR
Sam Pisani, Managing Partner, Logit Group – 416.629.4116, sam.pisani@logitgroup.com

The Importance of Validating Online Voter Respondents

With a little less than a month until the 2020 US presidential election, political polling is in full swing across the country. Phone centers are at or near capacity trying to keep up with political polling demand, and online panel sources are being utilized at a higher frequency for political polling than ever before.

Traditionally pollsters have preferred a phone approach as it allows for a more representative sample base. The abundance of voter profiled phone sample has also made it the preferred methodology for targeting and applying quotas for party registration and previous voter history.

Over the past several years phone has become a more complicated landscape to navigate with increasing regulations and guidelines for how polling is conducted over the phone. In combination with declining response rates, online has now become the preferred method of polling for many.
Online presents a cost-effective alternative to phone, with an abundance of willing participants eager to provide their political opinions. The question is, how accurate are these opinions and how can researchers be assured that those they are speaking to are registered voters with a verifiable voting track record.

In the absence of voter registration data, self-identification has been the preferred method of panelist classification, leading to an inflated number on online research panels. In 2018 there were 153 million+ Americans registered to vote, working out to roughly 47% of the population. By contrast, in a recent poll of online panel members, over 70% had identified themselves as registered voters. In addition to an over inflated voter base, online has traditionally lacked the same segmentation afforded to phone sample. Political party affiliation and previous voter turnout are also self-identified and as such are open to over inflation and bias based on the survey instrument.

Thankfully, several 3rd party voter databases exist that will allow you to proactively match your sample and enhance your panelists voter profile. With the addition of appended voter history and partisanship you can control survey quotas and accurately target registered voters.
Enhancing panelist data with registered voter data creates a methodology truer in form to phone polling and gives you greater confidence in standing behind your online voter respondents data.


About Steve Male, VP Business Development

Portrait of Steve Male VP Business Development at the Logit Group

Steve has over 10 years of market research experience having held roles in project management, field services and client facing roles. Some of Steve’s core areas of focus include the multicultural markets and IT decision makers.